SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
SATURDAY 14thMARCH 2026 AM SHIFT

TODAY INTO TONIGHT:

This morning, fair weather conditions persisted across Samoa, as the easterlies remain prevalent with a few patches of low-level cumulus. The precipitable water channel, revealed a weak signature of moisture content near the surface. Which coincides with the radiosonde profile, and depicted the deepening wind structure, mid level airmass reaching the upper atmosphere and instability. On that note, it also correlates with the mid-to-upper water vapor imagery, this characterize the western flank of the upper level low still resided north of Samoa, signifying upper convergence or subsidence aloft that would hinder convective growth. Hence, the atmosphere is stable. So, through the afternoon, as the diurnal weather patterns slowly kicks in, expect afternoon showers mainly windward locations and elevated areas. As for tonight, there’s a greater chance the observed weather conditions may persisted with a few showers along the mean wind flow. 

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

Fair weather conditions are predicted for the next couple of days as the ridge maintains descending air over the AOR. Trade wind pattern as experienced throughout the day is forecasted for the first half of this outlook period. TPW animation favors the SPCZ current location while ridging is predicted for our forecast zone. An upper trough is expected to descend over the area from the North in the latter days of this outlook period, however, the absence of a significant rain-maker system at the surface reduces the intensity of precipitation hinted by global models during this period. The SPCZ is forecasted to maintain its position over the Western part of the SWP region next week with a weak pulse. Therefore, expect mostly fine weather apart from afternoon showers for the weekend through the start of the new week as the Easterly wind flow persists.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The latest marine observations from the Aunu’u and King Poloa wave buoys, as well as altimeter data, indicate wave and swell heights fluctuating around 2 meters, suggesting no imminent threat across Samoa’s marine waters. Global wave models suggest that wave activities will persist below the advisory threshold of 2.5 metres throughout this outlook period.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE

Weather Duty Team:
A. Liu, L. I. Tuatipi, N. Tutasi, & F. U. Namulau’ulu.