SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY 25th FEBRUARY 2026 AM SHIFT

TODAY:

Isolated showers with periods of brief moderate falls impact some parts of the northern districts in the morning as a result of the moist and moderate Easterly wind flow dominating the low levels. Deep convective activities concentrated to the northwest of the group where the animation signified favourable wet atmospheric conditions. CIMMS observations indicate the absence of any supporting mechanisms at the low and upper levels, apart from sea breeze and surface heating possible throughout the day. Similar variability in weather is also suggested by models as the low levels remain moist and unstable with the existence of 15-20 knots Easterlies at the steering level. Gusty winds is possible during the onset timing of rainfall as the aforementioned mid-level winds mixes down towards the surface as the trade wind inversion weakens late in the afternoon. Therefore, anticipate partly cloudy with some isolated showers, brief moderate falls and a few thunderstorms in some areas for today.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

Global weather models suggest that the easterly trade wind regime will predominate through at least Friday, before shifting northeasterly as a ridge builds over the forecast area through the weekend. This synoptic pattern extends through the mid-levels, providing eastward steering of cloud development, and thus bringing periods of showery conditions with the potential for moderate to heavy falls across the group. In addition, southerly winds aloft is forecast to dominate throughout this outlook period, and may induce subsidence aloft over the region, suppressing significant development of convection. This will likely result in mostly fine weather spells across the group, apart from showery conditions with possible periods of heavy falls throughout this week.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

Wave observations continue to fluctuate below 2 metres as per latest observations. These wave and sea state conditions will remain across our local and marine waters for this entire outlook period. GFS tropical update also reveals the same story with waves remaining below the advisory threshold for the next few days through the upcoming week.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE

Weather Duty Team:
A. Niko, L.I Tuatipi, P Huch, & S Tavanā .