FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEDNESDAY19th FEBRUARY 2020 (PM SHIFT)

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

The active convergence zone which is also connected to Tropical Disturbance 07F remains over Samoa with associated rain and gusty winds.  Tropical Disturbance 07F was located to the West of Wallis is now positioned to the South of Samoa. The system was approaching at a fast speed within the past 12hours and has a moderate potential to develop into a Tropical cyclone. It is expected to move further to the southeast from the islands. However, the active convergence zone will continue to bring periods of rain with possible heavy falls, strong and damaging gusty winds at times this morning. Expect damaging heavy swells and rough seas.

Another developing low pressure system is now located to the west of Wallis and is also expected to move towards the island this afternoon with similar weather condition.

SATURDAYTHROUGH  WEDNESDAY:

The SPCZ will linger in the vicinity of the Samoan island by Saturday into Wednesday bringing isolated to scattered showers from time to time. Winds will predominantly northwest to northeast with moderate speed.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Wave and swells observations this evening show an increasing trend above our advisory  from 4-6feet observed from altimeter and the Aunu’u wave buoy due to the strong Northwesterlies wind-flow.Wave-watch model continues to maintain these height for tonight and tomorrow and expected to diminish later in the week.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

WIND WARNING…

HEAVY RAIN WARNING…

FLOOD  WARNING FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND VULNERABLE AREAS

COASTAL FLOODING

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS

DUTY FORECASTERS:

M. AUVAE & T. ARONI