SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
SATURDAY 07th FEBRUARY 2026 AM SHIFT
TODAY & TOMORROW:
The upper level low circulation lies slow moving from the east and IR as well as water vapor channels clearly show the circulation of mid to upper clouds and airmass near our area. As for the surface and low levels, the convergence zone dominates keeping a moderate Easterly flow with the expectation of increasing strength tomorrow afternoon. Gradient and 850mb level winds analyzed by model updates suggest 30 to 35 knots winds to make landfall as the system lies inside the vicinity tomorrow in the late afternoon. Weather map analysis indicate the surface ridge dominating the forecast zone with the activities of the SPCZ relocated further southwest. Strong vortex with favorable wind shear environment is verified by the CIMMS observations at the location of the abovementioned upper system. Although minimum showery activities with isolated coverage is forecasted by models, the upper system may trigger thunderstorms based on the sounding trace as the surface will be exposed to surface heating during daytime. Furthermore, the existence of the moderate wind flow will enhance sea breeze convergence at the islands coast elevating the probability of parcel entrainment acquired for cloud growth. Stronger upper southerly winds of 40 - 45 knots winds may reach the lower atmospheric layers through boundary layer mixing. Therefore, anticipate cloudy periods with scattered showers in the evening, brief heavy falls and a few thunderstorms and gusty winds during rain for today.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
As the soil remains saturated from the occasional rain events experienced throughout this week and last, there is a high likelihood for upgrading Flood and Heavy Rain advisories to warning category within the next 12-24 hours. The atmosphere remains unstable and moist mainly for the low and upper layers. Thus, the propagation of the aforementioned upper system from East towards our area is carefully monitored as the wind speeds predicted at the uppers may bring strong gusty periods for the start of the new week. However, based on the latest fortnight outlook evn though the upper systems and atmospheric conditions may be favorable, subsiding airmass due to ridging may dominate the lower atmosphere. Therefore, the monitoring of observations for the precipitation values of tomorrow and ground truth of observations is the main priority for any amendments of the forecast for this outlook period.
MARINE OUTLOOK:
The latest marine observations, showcase that the wave and swell heights across the country’s coastal and marine waters remain below the 2.5 metres, which pose no potential threat. However, there is an episode of northerly swells with periods reaching up to 19s expected to enter our northern marine waters on Monday which may generate rough seas and strong currents for the start of the new week.
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
VALID: HEAVY RAIN WARNING
VALID: FLOOD ADVISORY
VALID: WIND ADVISORY
Weather Duty Team:
Gafa, Niko, Sofeni & Maualaivao.