SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION

TUESDAY 10th FEBRUARY 2026 AM SHIFT

TODAY INTO TONIGHT:

The satellite generally indicates cloudiness that generates periods of rainfall activities with associated few thunderstorms early hours of this morning, that showcase the convergence zone together with a trough of low pressure near the area of forecast. What’s more, the atmosphere is unstable with abundant low-level moisture content, regardless of the sunniness, which it will contributes to afternoon convections and a few thunderstorms. Furthermore, the cold core low lingers to the west maintaining the weak divergence aloft. Henceforth, the Warning and Advisories remain in effect all land areas.

Tonight, the convergence zone associated with the trough of low pressure slowly moves westward while maintaining unstable weather conditions. Meanwhile the upper level system is expected to slowly deformed tonight with the wind shear weakening. So, there’s a probability of rainfall activities across Samoa.  

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure extends over the north resulted in the change of wind direction becoming northeasterly, drawing warm and moist equatorial flow, as the convergence zone with the associated trough of low pressure shifted to the south but gradually weakening. Eventually, on Thursday throughout the outlook period is expected that the northeast swerve to the east as the ridge of high pressure descends southward, introducing the trade regime with passing showers. In this time period, the upper level south-to-southeast aloft is expected to persist an implication of polar air mass, suppressing vertical cloud formation.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The current marine observational data continues to showcase wave and swell heights across Samoa’s marine areas remains at the range of 2-2.5 meters. So it poses no threat to the country’s marine waters. This wave activities, is predicted throughout the outlook period with the low-to-moderate probability for wave activities fluctuating below 2.5 meters.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:

VALID: HEAVY RAIN WARNING

VALID: FLOOD ADVISORY

VALID: WIND ADVISORY

Weather Duty Team:

A. Liu, L. I. Tuatipi, A. Uili, & F. U. Namulau’ulu.