FORECAST DISCUSSION

SATURDAY 11th APRIL 2026 – P.M SHIFT

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW:

The moist easterly continues to prevail over the group – bringing about isolated showery periods and a few thunderstorms. Observations from across Samoa together with satellite image, while also considering sounding information – and indication of moisture persistence with instability – maintaining the possibility of showery activities for Samoa.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

Global weather models suggest that the easterly trade winds will predominate Samoa throughout this outlook period, with a series of short-wave troughs passing across the group. This synoptic pattern may induce showery conditions over the forecast area, with the potential for moderate to heavy falls in some areas starting from Saturday. The easterly steering flow is forecast to be gentle to moderate during this period, implying minimal vertical disruption to convective storm development and growth. In addition, an upper trough approaching from the west is expected to lie near Fiji by Sunday, bringing upper diffluence that may enhance cloud development through at least Wednesday of the new week. This upper-level system is forecast to exit through the north by late Wednesday while dissipating.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The latest marine observations from Aunu’u and King Poloa wave buoys indicate that wave heights occasionally exceeded 2.5 metres over the past 12 hours. These wave activities may continue to slightly increase above 2.5 metres mainly over the southern marine waters from Saturday through at least Monday of the new week. During this outlook period, there is a low probability of significant wave heights entering the northern marine waters. Although this may be the case, activities may not pose serious wave-related hazards to the group’s marine waters.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:

NONE

Weather Duty Team:

MJS, Sasamamao Kalolo, Aquinas Uili & Ne’emia Tutasi