FORECAST DISCUSSION

MONDAY 30th MARCH 2020 (PM SHIFT)

TODAY:

Latest satellite imageries shows an active cloudband situated to the South of the islands associated with a trough of low pressure with major convective activities extending from Vanuatu Southeastward of Tonga. Surface streamline analysis placed a Northeast windflow affecting the islands while the SPCZ lies South westward of Samoa with an embedded low circulation near Vanuatu. A ridge of high pressure is responsible for few rainfall activities within the nowcast period with some localised cloud developments over elevated areas and will is expected to clear from tonight. Sounding profile depicted a dry and stable atmosphere. However, a strong Southerlies may shear some upper-level moisture over the group from the surface trough and may provide some showery activities heading towards tonight otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies with brief showers and a chance of few thunderstorms.      

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

The warm and moist North-easterly wind-flow will remain over the group until tomorrow when the ridge of high pressure system started to weakening. Deep rainfall activities associated with the SPCZ is expected to locate to the west from the south of Solomon Is towards Fiji. The easterly wind flow forecast to be the dominate weather features with brief showers throughout the outlook period. Therefore, expect drier and stable weather conditions. Showers may occur mostly at noontime, mainly over elevated areas and the windward locations.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Observations from Aunu’u show waves within the range of 1.5-2 meters. Wave watch models and Aunu’u wave buoy forecast these activities to remain below the advisory threshold for the rest of the outlook period.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

NONE

DUTY FORECASTERS:

A.Maua