FORECAST DISCUSSION

MONDAY 15th OCTOBER 2018 (AM SHIFT)

TODAY:

Satellite loop shows a rainband with embedded thunderstorm affected the Islands from 1200utc till morning. Sounding observation reveals a moist and unstable atmosphere with Easterly flow from surface to mid-level. However, an upper convergence over the forecast zone will less the development of convective activities within the nowcast period. Expect continuous rain for Savai’i as the band moves Westward. Fine spell for Upolu with scattered stable low-level clouds streaming along the Easterly flow. Fresh winds in the afternoon.

TUESDAY TOWARDS SUNDAY:
Moderate to fresh Easterlies will dominate the rest of the outlook period. Numerical model roaming profile of the atmosphere show showers to remain minimal, showers to occur during the fluctuation of the pressure differences between land and sea; such that will provide prior high tide. A tail-end of a frontal system will likely affect the later part of the outlook period.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Latest wave observation show wave heights ranging from 1-2 metres. Although an increase in swell height activities predicted to reach the advisory threshold later tonight. Issued small craft advisory to be in effect tonight to reflect this situation.

ADVISORIES & WARNINGS:

>> SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT <<

FORECASTER:

E.Toluono