SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
Friday, 11th October 2024 – P.M. Shift

Tonight:
Latest satellite images show a few low-level clouds riding along the easterly flow visible over the island which aligned well with surface observation. Surface streamline analysis placed an easterly wind flow over Samoa from a high-pressure system centred southeast. The sounding trace displayed some moisture from the surface up to 750mb driven by the easterly flow. With no major enhancement features through the levels, limited convection is expected for tonight. Therefore, partly cloudy with some evening showers in certain locations with a chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday through Friday:
Global models predict moderate easterly winds will persist across the country through the weekend and into next week. However, a speed convergence approaching from the east may trigger isolated showers and gusty winds by tomorrow. A trough of low pressure is forecast to approach from the northeast by Tuesday of the new week, bringing increased showers. While no upper-level systems are currently expected, models indicate a possibility of precipitation associated with this system. There are some inconsistencies in the models for next week's system, but we will continue to monitor developments closely and provide updates as needed.

Marine Outlook:
Wave observations indicate heights fluctuating between 2 and 2.5 meters. Further, wave-watch models predict waves ranging from 1.5 to 2 meters from tomorrow through the latter part of the forecast period.

Advisories/Warnings:
None.

Weather Duty Team:
LMSA, AS & AU