SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
TUESDAY 10th JUNE 2025 AM SHIFT
TODAY:
A moist Southeast winds continue to generate showers along windward and elevated locations from the early hours of the morning through the afternoon. Some short-lived convective activities were also visible over the satellite animation on the southwest of Savaii. Such is highly driven by episodes of speed convergence along the dominant flow at the surface to mid-levels. TPWAT animation also hint some indication of moisture associated with convergence of Easterlies and Southeasterlies which is gradually moving over the southern shores. ASCAT winds captured over the Himawari Satellite signifies 15 knots southeast winds along the southern marine waters. Models suggest mainly localized afternoon convections driven by surface heating to kick start convective growth over highlands during the late afternoon with the possibility of a few thunderstorms as the sounding trace hints moisture presence.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
Global weather models indicate that from Wednesday to Thursday, minimal cloud cover along with likely of few showers are expected across the islands. This is due to the anticipated dominance of trade winds pattern. The moderate intensification of southeasterly winds likely to take place by early Wednesday towards the end of the forecast period. The probable intensification of this situation is attributed to the high-pressure system located to the south of the Fijian group, which may advance eastward. Consequently, predominantly pleasant weather is anticipated to prevail in the forecast area from Friday into the weekend with a potential for some precipitation. In the mid-levels, east to southeast winds with light intensity are expected to prevail towards the conclusion of the outlook period. Strong southwest to southerly winds are forecasted at higher altitudes, which may facilitate the continuation of dry air-mass advection throughout this forecast period.
MARINE OUTLOOK:
Aunuu wave observations indicate wave heights remaining slightly above 2 metres with an increasing trend anticipated tonight through tomorrow. Similar predictions are given by wave watch 3 GFS loops for period and significant wave height. However, probable 2.5 meters may be only focused over the south and western marine waters. An additional feature which will likely elevate waves above 2.5 metres will be the strengthening of the southeast winds mainly for tomorrow through Friday. We’ll continue to monitor latest observations and advise accordingly if conditions worsen and provide enough lead time regarding this marine event.
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE
Weather On-Duty Team:
Gafa, Kalapani & Tuatipi.