FORECAST DISCUSSION

SUNDAY 17THFEBRUARY 2019 (AM SHIFT)

TODAY:
The aforementioned trough lies to the South of the group. Meanwhile on satellite imageries convective activities are visible to the East of the group associated with a convergence zone which links to a low circulation further Southeast of the group. Meanwhile Samoa remains clear early this morning. An upper-divergence continues to enhance the convergence as it is forecast to remain nearly stationary just East of the group and may provide some scattered showers across the islands from a few models. Sounding profile depicted a moist low-level of the atmosphere due to the convergence zone and is unstable. Thus, expect fine morning becoming cloudy with isolated showers. Moderate falls and few thunderstorms possible.

MONDAY TOWARDS FRIDAY:

The aforementioned convergence zone will remain to the East for tomorrow. The dominant Southerly winds will push this convergence zone further north of the islands by tomorrow. A slight turn in winds to Southwest by midweek as a new low circulates to the Southeast of the group with a few showery activities predicted for this outlook period. A strong high pressure system centred Southeast of the islands will push the aforementioned low Northwards and a trough associated with it will move over the islands with some instability for Thursday and into the weekend.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Observations show wave activities wavering between 2-2.5 metres. Waves fluctuate over 2.5 for sometime, due to the Northern Hemisphere’s trades cooperatively coupling with the equatorial flow. Ensemble view for the rest of the marine outlook show decreasing wave heights for the islands.

ADVISORIES & WARNINGS:
NONE

FORECASTER:
A. Maua