FORECAST DISCUSSION
MONDAY 10TH AUGUST 2020 (PM SHIFT)
TONIGHT & TOMORROW:
A trough of low-pressure system remains to the North of Samoa, meanwhile a moderate to fresh East to Southeast wind flow prevails over the group. Low-level clouds are streaming along with the wind flow as shown on the latest satellite loop. Moreover, the sounding profile also stated a fresh Southeast winds of 20 knots near-surface, these SE winds are directing over islands due to the high-pressure system that located to the Northeast of New Zealand as it evident on the surface streamline analysis. Furthermore, the sounding profile is only depicted moisture near the surface with the existence of the subsidence inversion from 700mb up to upper-level atmosphere which restricted the development of any convective clouds over Samoa. Global models predicted the trades to maintain the trough of low pressure to the North of the islands. Therefore, expect partly cloudy skies with some showers for tonight.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
The intense high-pressure system located Northeast of New Zealand will continue to direct Southeast winds over the islands for the next two days, expect the tradewinds showers for the beginning of the outlook. A trough of low-pressure system to the Northeast will be descending over the group and bringing some isolated showers as well light winds for Thursday and Friday. Another high-pressure system from the Southwest will direct a convergence zone from the South over Samoa maintaining wet weather conditions for the latter periods.
MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK
Aunu’u wave observation shows a slightly increasing of wave heights whereas the JMA model predicted the increasing of waves to 3 meters by tomorrow afternoon with a small probability. The guidance highlighted the severe waves activities over us as high confidence of 2.5m. Current observations in the evening saw waves below 2.5 metres.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL TO OPEN WATERS OF SAMOA.
DUTY FORECASTERS:
Maua & Aroni