SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION

TUESDAY 17th FEBRUARY 2026 PM SHIFT

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW:

The precipitable water channell revealed an increased available moisture content, streaming along the prevailing northeasterlies. With this, it correlates well with the collection of satellite images, signifying the movement of a weak speed convergence over the area of concern. Further, the radiosonde profile delineate low-level moisture advection over the vicinity, which provide some brief showers in some windward areas and afternoon showers over highlands, with support from the diurnal weather patterns.

Tomorrow, expect diurnal weather conditions which may generate some afternoon convection activities with possible few thunderstorms mainly elevated locations. Anticipate the mean wind flow veer from the east later afternoon.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

Global model consensus, predicted minimum rainfall activities at least Thursday, where the mean wind flow the swerve east-to-southeast, as an trough chained to a circulation from the southeast slowly moving over the forecast zone. Further, a ridge of high pressure extends from the east to the north of Samoa, shifting the system, near Samoa on Friday through Sunday. So, there’s a likelihood of heavy downpours. So, expect a thorough investigation and update accordingly.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The latest wave observations indicate wave and swell heights fluctuating at 2 metres over Samoa’s marine waters. Global wave models suggest these wave activity patterns to persist throughout the outlook period and below the advisory threshold of 2.5 metres.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:

NONE

Weather Duty Team:

A. Liu, S. Kalolo, C. Baker, & F. U. Namulau’ulu.