Time : 02:18 (am)

FORECAST DISCUSSION

MONDAY 19th APRIL 2021 (PM SHIFT)

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:

The active band of clouds with embedded heavy rainfall and thunderstorms lingers just north of Samoa. This band of clouds marked the convergence zone. Sufficient moisture and unstable atmospheric profile remains within the area. The CIMSS wind observation and 250hPa streamline analysis show an upper level trough just southwest which indeed fuel the development of the surface convergence. Global models suggest an uptick in showery activities early this morning and will be easing in morning light hours. Hence, anticipate isolated showers with possible heavy falls and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh southeast to east winds will persist through the short term forecast.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
The global models predicted the convergence zone to move
further south of the group by Wednesday allowing the short wave trough behind to descend over the area in the mid-week and maintain wet weather conditions through Saturday. Winds may swerve more Northeast starting by Wednesday keeping moisture available in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, anticipating isolated to scattered showers throughout the week. Will monitor the movement of the systems and update respectively.


MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Current observations depict wave heights ranging from 1.5-2 metres in height driven by moderate Southeasterly winds.Wave Watch models indicate wave heights to remain below the Advisory and Warning threshold for the rest of the outlook period. Therefore, the marine outlook for the following week poses NO threat to all Samoa’s marine waters.


WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES:

NONE


DUTY FORECASTERS:

V.W & E.T