SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
SATURDAY 28th  FEBRUARY 2026 AM SHIFT

TODAY INTO TONIGHT:

As of now, a surface-to-mid level ridge of high pressure stationed to the south of Samoa, maintained the moist and moderate northeasterly winds which also withhold the active SPCZ to the west. Wind CIMMS coincides with the sounding profile, collaboratively depicted deepening mean wind flow structure at the low-to-mid level with weak indications of few gustiness that will impact northern areas and highlands. Further, it also revealed a weak upper divergence aloft for cloud formation, but suppressed due to the strong southerly wind shear in the upper atmosphere. So, anticipate showery activities and a few short-lived thunderstorms driven by both the diurnal weather patterns and low-level moisture advection along the mean wind flow which it may prolong through tonight.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

The global model guidance, forecasted that the previously stated ridging, will become the dominated weather feature, this maintains the northeast-to-east wind flow across the area of concern, withholding the active SPCZ to the west. At this period, there’s a moderate-to-high possibility for diurnal weather patterns and trade wind showers along the mean wind flow. This alignment of surface wind flow coincides with the mid level winds. As for the upper atmosphere, a ridge stretches from the Fiji region extends southeastward, which ushered the upper level south-to-southeast aloft, followed by a descending upper low on Wednesday through Thursday.    

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The current marine observations continuously indicate that wave and swell heights remain below 2 meters, suggested no imminent threat across Samoa’s marine areas.Wave watch models suggest that these wave conditions will persist and fluctuate the advisory threshold of 2.5 metres throughout this outlook period.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE

Weather Duty Team:
A. Liu, A. Sofeni, C. Baker, & N. Tutasi.