SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
THURSDAY 05thMARCH 2026 AM SHIFT

TODAY INTO TONIGHT:

The easterlies continues to prevails within the vicinity with few periods of brief showers along the mean wind flow. The sounding profile showcase, a fair amount of low-level moisture, with deepening wind structure and instability. Furthermore, in the upper atmosphere delineate an upper low slowly moving southwestward with strong shear environment. This afternoon, expect showery mainly over highlands due to the diurnal effects with a few thunderstorms possible.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

The global weather guidance suggested that by later Thursday, the southeasterly trade winds will prevail in the forecast region as a surface-to-mid-level trough moves in from the east. This weather pattern is expected to remain over the region by Friday, resulting in rainy conditions with the possibility of moderate to heavy precipitation in select areas until at least Sunday as it shifts southward. Alternatively, mostly pleasant weather is expected in certain regions throughout this timeframe. A region of upper diffluence could form over the forecast zone starting Friday, potentially supporting the growth and development of convective storms. Moreover, the Easterly trade wind pattern is expected to prevail throughout the rest of the forecast period.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The latest marine observations from Aunu’u, King Poloa wave buoys and altimeter data indicate that the wave and swell heights fluctuate at 2 meters, suggesting no imminent threat across Samoa’s marine waters. Global wave models suggest that wave activities will persist below the advisory threshold of 2.5 metres throughout this outlook period.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE

Weather Duty Team:
A. Liu, A. Niko, S. Tavanā, & C. Baker.