SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
TUESDAY 10thMARCH 2026 AM SHIFT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT:
As of now, the moist northeasterlies remains prevalent across the vicinity of Samoa, followed with a trough of low pressure still located to the west and associated showery and thundery activities. With this, the radiosonde profile indicated the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, where it composed of abundant moisture content, deepening wind structure mainly to the lower-level with instability. However, there’s no upper level mechanism for support and longevity, but persisted southwesterly aloft sheared cloud tops over the area of forecast. So, a collection of latest satellite channels indicated isolated convections, patches of cumulus congestus near the vicinity, providing periods of brief heavy falls in some areas of Samoa today including short-lived thunderstorms over seas. According to the model guidance, it suggested similar weather patterns with breaks at some parts of the country. Expect increased cloud coverage which corresponds to showers with associated gusty winds at times mainly at windward locations and elevated regions.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
Based on the current numerical weather predictions, evinced that the trough of low pressure remains to the west while steadily drifted further westward on Wednesday. Because of this synoptic set up, the wind direction gently veered to from the east, becoming easterly wind flow with the probability for wind strength becoming moderate-to-fresh with periods of gustiness and showery activities. This forecasted weather patterns may prolong through Thursday with slight easing conditions on Friday. However, there’s a chance of increased precipitation amount on Saturday through Sunday where a trough of low pressure may linger the area of responsibility.
MARINE OUTLOOK:
The latest marine observations from Aunu’u, King Poloa wave buoys and altimeter data indicate that the wave and swell heights fluctuate below 2 meters, suggesting no imminent threat across Samoa’s marine waters. Global wave models suggest that wave activities will persist below the advisory threshold of 2.5 metres throughout this outlook period.
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
VALID: HEAVY RAIN ADVISORY
Weather Duty Team:
A. Liu, L. I. Tuatipi, P. Huch, & C. Baker.