FORECAST DISCUSSION

THURSDAY 14thMAY 2026 AMSHIFT

TODAY INTO TONIGHT:

The satellite data, revealed that most parts of Samoa experienced fair weather conditions, except some brief afternoon showers mainly over highlands and windward areas. With this, present low-level moisture content, with mid-to-upper dry slot and weak instability. Whereas, in the upper atmosphere, regardless of the dominated upper level moisture, due to the persisted strong west-to-southwest aloft it also suppressed, which hinders vertical cloud formation. So, expect afternoon showers due to the localized effects with some showers along the mean wind flow tonight. 

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

Global weather models suggest that the easterly winds will dominate the surface through at least Saturday with typical localized convection in the afternoon over highlands. A light to gentle and variable steering flow may persist through at least Monday, becoming northwesterly in the remaining days of this outlook. In addition, an intense high-pressure system sitting over the Tasman Sea is expected to move eastward, pushing the SPCZ to reside just south of Samoa by Sunday and inducing rainfall activities. This synoptic weather pattern may also direct strong southeasterly winds across the south of the group from Sunday evening. The strong southwesterly to westerly winds aloft is forecast to persist at the uppers during this outlook period, suggesting a lack of significant upper-level forcing for convective enhancement.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

Currently, the recoded marine observations continues to showcase wave and swell heights across Samoa’s marine waters, is below the 2 meters. But, wave model forecasted a combined wind-wave and southerly swell that may impact the country’s marine areas on Saturday through Tuesday. Furthermore, tide table predictions are hinting the peak tide of May on Sunday at 06:10am which will likely elevate swells for mostly our Southern Seas. Thus, there’s a probable chance of a valid marine advisory in the 24-48 hours.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:

NONE

Weather Duty Team:

A. Liu, A. Sofeni, A. Uili, & N. Tutasi.