SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION

TUESDAY 07th APRIL 2026 AM SHIFT

REST OF TODAY:

The Easterly wind flow remains prevalent over the islands – a moist and warm flow feeding into Severe Tropical Cyclone Cat 3 VAIANU. Concentrated moisture has shifted towards the system, whilst the dominant wind flow remains in our area. The sounding profile indicates sufficient moisture over our area, with lingering instability. Such remains the driving effect of the nowcast weather for Samoa for the rest of today. For this, the inclusion of solar radiation coupling with said conditions will yet to provide periods of short-lived showery activities for the rest of today.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Cat 3 VAIANU poses no direct threat for the Samoan islands.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

The model consensus generally agreed that the previously named ridge of high-pressure system extending from the east of New Zealand will be the dominant weather feature. This system will maintain the course of Tropical Cyclone Category 3 Vaianu, with the forecast track shifting southeastward and a low chance of impact over Samoa. On that note, the trade wind regime is most likely to persist over the forecast area, with the mean wind flow veering from northeast to north on Wednesday, then northwesterly on Thursday through Friday as the previously stated ridge of high pressure extends across the country. Then on Saturday into Sunday, it will descend to the south, where the wind becomes easterlies. Throughout the outlook period, there’s a probable chance of no upper-level forcing, so expect diurnal weather patterns.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The latest marine observations from King Poloa, Aunu’u wave buoys, and altimeter data indicate that wave and swell heights fluctuate around 2 metres. Global wave models suggest that wave activity will fluctuate below 2.5 metres over Samoa’s marine waters until Saturday into Sunday, where there’s a low chance of significant wave height that may enter Samoa’s southern marine waters.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:

NONE

Weather Duty Team:

MJS, Sasamamao Kalolo, Siala Maualaivao & Ne’emia Tutasi