FORECAST DISCUSSION

MONDAY 24thJUNE 2019 (PM SHIFT)

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:

A fresh trade wind flow continues to prevail over the group with a speed convergence zone associated with a weak trough just North of the Islands early this morning. The dry south-westerly aloft and stable air mass near the group which will prohibit any vertical development, in addition to a strong subsidence inversion at 850hPa. The trade winds will continue to strengthen because of the proximity of the high pressure centre to Samoa. Some instability from the CZ/weak trough in the north may provide cloudiness with brief showers for the northern districts; and throughout tomorrow the islands is to expect a decrease in wind speed pending the relaxation of the high pressure to the Southeast and if not winds and conditions may remain the same.

WEDNESDAY TOWARDS SATURDAY:
The high pressure system centred South of Southern Cooks will maintain fresh and gusty winds until Wednesday, and the high pressure system may relax slightly. Passing showers as usual will be common along the onshore flow and exposed locations and may clear up by Wednesday when the winds weaken. Another episode of the trades restores in the latter outlook with increasing waves and swells as the models can now indicate occurrence.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Wave’s observations show waves exceeding advisory threshold. With winds and waves expected to increase, the advisory will remain for the next 48 hours. Likely cancellation by Wednesday and potentially re-issued by early weekend with another run of the trade winds approaching,

ADVISORIES & WARNINGS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE

FORECASTER:

Manu