Time : 06:15 (am)

FORECAST DISCUSSION

SUNDAY 15th SEPTEMBER 2019 (PM SHIFT)


TONIGHT:

Samoa remains affects by the easterly wind flow. Stable and dry weather conditions continue to persist over the islands as the ridge of high pressure to the Northeast directs light to moderate easterlies winds over the islands. Meanwhile, a line of clouds appears to the Northeast of the islands associated with a trough while the main trough which links to the low circulation to the North of Solomon Islands lies Southwest of the group. There is no upper-level system that could provide showery activities for tonight. Global models suggest the trough to the north to drift north-westward along the ridge of high pressure system while weakening with less rainfall activities within the nowcast period. Thus, expect partly cloudy skies with some brief showers towards wind facing locations.

  
MONDAY TOWARDS SATURDAY:
The aforementioned trough of low pressure to the Southwest will slowly drift Southeastward as the ridge of high pressure system weakens with few rainfall activities for Monday. A wind change is expected afterward to revert back to Southeast winds with the tradewind regime to resume again for the long term forecast. As usual, strong surges along the high pressure system is expected to provide moderate winds with the possibility of rainfall activities particularly for Southern and Eastern locations by midweek and will persist for the rest of the outlook period. Therefore, expect fine weather to persist for the week apart from some showers activities for southern and eastern districts with winds to pick up by Wednesday.


MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Latest observations from the Aunu’u buoy recorded swell activities below 2 metres and will remain so based on model predictions and severe weather guidance. However, with the surges traveling within the high pressure systems it may increase slightly to 2.5m which then warrants the issuance of a small crafts advisory. Will monitor this system for further developments.


ADVISORIES & WARNINGS:

NONE


FORECASTER:

A.N