CURRENT SITUATION OF ENSO
The ENSO remains ‘Neutral’ and expected to sustain for the remainder of 2017 as all climate models suggesting neutral conditions. The sea surface temperatures (SST) in June 2017 were slightly warmer than average in the central equatorial Pacific while weaker anomalies recorded just south of the equator across the Pacific. The June values for Nino 3.4, Nino 3 and Nino 4 regions were +0.5 °C, +0.3 °C and +0.5 °C, respectively. The overall SST pattern is inconsistent with a
development of El Nino therefore El Nino is still unlikely. In other indicators of ENSO such as the trade winds, southern oscillation index (SOI) remains in neutral range. The 30 day SOI value as recorded on July 16th was +0.3 whereas the 90 day value was –2.9 ; all within neutral conditions.
ENSO OUTLOOK
All eight (8) international models surveyed indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures especially in the Nino 3.4 region are most likely to continue in ENSO - neutral conditions until at least the end of 2017.
(El Nino is one major driver of Samoa's rainfall and temperature. El Nino could affect the normal rainfall pattern in Samoa generally resulting in reduced rainfall or drought. Day time temperatures tend to be hotter than normal over the country. Past El Nino events have been one cause of Forest Fires in Asau (North West of Savaii island). Different parts of the country may experience varying rainfall
impacts. As a consequence of this rainfall deficit, the following sectors could be severely impacted: Water, Agriculture, Health, Energy (Hydropower), Tourist (Accommodations Facilities) and Forestry.)