Island society, the environment and the economy of Samoa continue to be under major risk due to seasonal and inter-annual climate variability. These risks are significant in the Pacific region and compounded by human induced climate change which interact with natural variability of the climate system. Seasonal climate outlooks is produced regularly to reduce the vulnerability of all sectors to climate variability in the context of a changing climate.

Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Samoa is generated from two forecasting models. The first is the statistical model called SCOPIC [Seasonal Climate Outlook for Pacific Island Countries], the other is the dynamic model POAMA.

POAMA RAINFALL FORECAST

The model is biased towards ABOVE NORMAL rainfall for the January-February-March 2015 [JFM] season for Samoa.

The model favours a NORMAL rainfall for the February-March-April 2015 [FMA] season.

SCOPIC RAINFALL FORECAST

SCOPIC predictions are available here.